Wednesday, February 20, 2008

American Railcar (ARII) Earnings Preview

Potential secondary plays: RAIL, WAB, GBX; customers KOP, DOW, GE

02/21 Update:

Wabtec misses by $0.01, beats on revs; guides FY08 roughly in-line, adds $100 mln to its share buyback program. Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.58 per share, $0.01 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.59; revenues rose 24.1% year/year to $365.3 mln vs the $344.3 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY08, sees EPS of approx $2.50 vs. $2.53 consensus; sees FY08 rev growth in mid-single digits which we calculate to be about $1.43 bln vs. $1.44 bln consensus. Co also adds $100 mln to its share buyback program.

WAB next earning release 02/21 BMO

02/21 Update:

American Railcar Industries beats by $0.14, beats on revs (21.85 -0.15) : Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.37 per share, $0.14 better than the First Call consensus of $0.23; revenues fell 2.1% year/year to $161.9 mln vs the $143 mln consensus.

American Railcar Industries (ARII), a manufacturer of railroad cars, is set to report Q4 results tonight after the close. Consensus calls for revenue of $143 mln and EPS of $0.23.

Recent Results: The co does not have a good record of beating consensus estimates as it has missed the last two quarters. Last qtr, the co missed badly, as Q3 EPS of $0.23 was well short of the $0.43 consensus. Revenue was also very light. The stock dropped dropped by more than 20% that day (Nov 7)...

Recent Price Action: The stock has been making a nice comeback since selling off on Q3 results. The stock is up 45% since late Nov...

Recent Developments: Carl Icahn is ARII's chairman and majority shareholder (54%). Icahn says ARII is undervalued and he has been increasing his stake aggressively over the past few months even as the stock was falling. Just this month, Icahn said he was interested in a possible merger between ARII and railcar equipment supplier Greenbrier (GBX), another large Icahn holding...

About ARII, GBX, WAB, KOP

American Railcar Industries, Inc. is a leading North American manufacturer of covered hopper and tank railcars. ARI also repairs and refurbishes railcars, provides fleet management services and designs and manufactures railcar and industrial components used in the production of its railcars as well as railcars and non-railcar industrial products produced by others.

Greenbrier Companies Inc. is a leading supplier of transportation equipment and services to the railroad and related industries. The manufacturing segment produces double-stack intermodal railcars, conventional railcars and marine vessels, and performs repair and refurbishment activities for both intermodal and conventional railcars. In addition to manufacturing, they are engaged in complementary leasing and services activities.

Wabtec Corporation is one of North America's largest providers of value-added, technology-based products and services for the rail industry. Through its subsidiaries, the company manufactures a full range of products for locomotives, freight cars and passenger transit vehicles. The company also builds new locomotives up to 4,000 horsepower and provides aftermarket services, including locomotive and freight car fleet maintenance.

Koppers Holdings Inc. is a global integrated producer of carbon compounds and treated wood products. Including its joint ventures, Koppers operates facilities in the United States, United Kingdom, Denmark, Australia, China, the Pacific Rim and South Africa.

Koppers operates a fleet of over 900 railcars to provide transportation of raw materials to their production facilities and to provide delivery of products to customers. They have partnered with several motor carriers that meet their high standards for financial responsibility, adequate insurance coverage and personnel training to ensure responsible handling of their heavily regulated products.

02/20 KOP Reports Q4 (Dec) adjusted earnings of $0.44 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.06 better than the First Call consensus of $0.38; revenues rose 21.4% year/year to $326.8 mln vs the $310.9 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY08, sees FY08 rev +5-8% which equates to ~$1.39-1.43 bln vs. $1.41 bln consensus.

02/20 KOP (41.27 +4.25)

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